Analysis Of Factors Causing Rice Imports After Food Self Sufficiency
Keywords:
impor beras, perdagangan internasional,ketahan pangan, konsumsi beras, produksi beras, luas lahan panen, dan PDB.Abstract
this study aims is to find out how the development of rice imports in Indonesia and what are the factors that influence the Indonesian state to import rice to other countries after the occurrence of rice self sufficiency in 1984. Entering the decade of the 1990s, Indonesia had to be forced to return to import rice from other countries. This research is a descriptive type of research with a fase study in Indonesia. Data on the development of rice imports were observed for the last 28 years (1983-2009). The data used in the form of secondary data sourced from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS). Based on the data that has been observed, in 1995 rice imports in indonesia experienced dependence in importing rice to reach about 3 million tons. There are several aspects that influence the level of rice imports in Indonesia, including population growth, food security, rice consumption, rice production, harvested area, and the level of gross domestic product (GDP). This research uses multiple linear regression methode with Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL). Based on the research results on the data is stasionary and cointegration then result of lag. The factors that influence the occurrence of rice imports in Indonesia are rice production, rice consumption, rice harvest area which have a positive but not significant effect and the level of GDP has a negative and significat effect on rice imports.
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